第三章　二日转向图 （江恩期货教程中文版）——005 [复制链接]

2-DAY CHART MOVES TIME TURNS

二日转向图

Long year[s] of experience have proved that the Daily High and Low Chart does not give the best indication of a change in trend, because one day is too short a period of time. The 2-day chart moves, which are recorded in line moves, means moves of 2 days or more up or down. If a grain option starts advancing and only has reactions lasting one day, you do not record these reactions at all; but when a move lasts two days or more, you move the line on the chart down as long as bottoms are lower. After the price advances, making higher bottoms and higher tops for two days or more, you move the line on the 2-day chart up to the high of each day until there is another reversal.

多年的经验已经证明日图不能很好的表示趋势的变化，毕竟一天是很短的时间。二日运动图就是用运动的线记录两天的多个顶底。如果一个谷物品种开始上涨，仅持续一天的反转下跌，你就没有任何必要记录这个反转，但是当这个反转持续两天或者两天以上的时候，你就要在图上把线移动到底部以下。价格上涨后，形成高底和高顶持续两天或两天以上，你就要在二日图上向上将线移动到高于任何一天价格的地方，直到另一个反转的出现。

When prices are at very high levels and fluctuations run from 7¢ to 10¢ per bushel each day, or more, the 2-day chart will often give a reversal or a time turn which would not be shown on a 3-day chart.

当价格处于高水平且每日波动在7美分至10美分/蒲式耳，或者更高，二日图常常会显示一个反向或周期变化的标志，而三日图却不能显示。

Example: July soybeans advanced from Nov. 22, 1949, advanced to Dec. 5th, making one reverse move on the 2-day chart. From December until February 2-6, 1950, each move on the 2-day chart was a lower top, showing that the main trend was down. On Feb. 6 the price declined to 219. You would buy at this level because, if you look at your resistance card, you will find that 218-3/8 is one half of the highest price at which May beans ever sold; therefore you would buy either May or July beans against this important half-way point, and place a stop-loss order at 217; but if you waited for the 2-day chart to show a change in trend you would buy when July soybeans crossed 225, when they were above the last top on the 2-day chart. From this time on there were six swings up on the 2-day chart, with bottoms and tops higher; and if you kept a Stop-loss Order just below the bottoms on the 2-day chart, you would have gotten the benefit of the complete move with a profit of nearly of $1 per bushel.

例如：七月大豆从1949年11月22涨至12月5日，在二日图上出现一个反向运动。从1949年12月到1950年2月4～6日，二日图呈现低顶，说明主要趋势向下。2月6日，价格跌至219。如果你查看下自己的阻力单，你就该在这个位置下买入单，因为218.375是五月大豆售出的历史最高点的一半。因此，你可以在这个重要位置中点买入五月或七月大豆，并在217位置设置止损单。但是，如果你想等到二日图中显示出趋势的变化的（标志），你可以在七月大豆破225点时买入，这时在二日图上它位于最后一个高点之上。这时二日图上有六波向上的趋势，顶底在不断升高。如果你将止损单下在底部下面，你将在整个趋势中获得大约1美元/蒲式耳的利润。

From the high of 436-3/4 in 1948 to the low of 201½ on May soybeans gives a half-way point of 319-1/8. July beans sold at 320-3/4 on May 8, and May soybeans sold at 323-3/4. If you had sold out and gone short around 319, you would have been right and would have made big profits in a few days. Note that from March 27 to March 30, 1950, July beans declined 16¢ per bushel in 3 days; this was the greatest reaction in price and time. Note the next reaction from April 25 to 27, a 2-day reaction with a decline of 11¢ per bushel, a smaller decline than the previous reaction, both in time and price, and no indication that the trend had turned.

五月黄豆从1948年的436.75高点到201.5低点的中值点是319.125。5月8日七月黄豆价格为320.75，五月黄豆价格为323.75。如果你在319点附近卖出或卖空，你是正确的，你将在短短几天内获得丰厚的利润。记住1950年3月27日至30日，七月黄豆在3天中跌了16美分/蒲式耳，这是价格和时间上的狂跌。记住下一个4月25日至27日，2天跌了11美分/蒲式耳，在价格和时间上，都比前一个下跌小些，（下跌的）趋势没有变化的迹象。

May 3rd, high 317; May 5th, low 298-1/8; a decline of 19¢ per bushel, which was 3¢ greater than the previous decline which made low of March 30. This had overbalanced the price reaction but had not overbalanced the time period of 3 days. A 2-day rally followed, reaching high at 320-3/4 on May 8, making a very small gain the last day and failing to reach 4¢ per bushel above the previous top. This is where the 2-day chart, at this extreme, shows a reversal that the 3-day chart would not show. This was a time turn on the 20-day [2-day] chart and if you waited for lower process the second day you would still have been able to sell at high levels. When the price declined 297½ on May 12, it was below the bottom of May 5 and the first time that a 2-day bottom had been broken since February 6. December [Remember] we have a rule which says that these fast moves last about 3 months and February, May, August and November are important months for changes in trend.
5月3日，317高点，5月5日，298.125低点，下跌了19美分/蒲式耳，比3月30的狂跌还多3美分，这在价格下跌上已经失去平衡但在3天的时间周期上还没有失去平衡。紧接两日价格出现了回调，在5月8日到达了320.75，最后一天增长微小，高于前一顶部不到4美分/蒲式耳。此时二日图上出现反向标志，如果你等候跌势，第二天你还能在高点卖出。当价格跌至低于5月5日底部的297.5位置时，这是二日图自2月6日以来第一次破底。请记住这样一个准则：这个迅猛的趋势约持续3个月，2月，5月，8月，11月是趋势变化的重要月份。

The decline continued and on May 17, July soybeans declined to 284½. Note the last bottom on the 2-day chart on April 27 was 284, making this a double bottom and a buying level.
下跌仍在继续，5月17日，七月大豆跌至284.5。二日图上最后一个底部是284，发生于4月27日，记录这个双底，这是买入位。

Every day’s top on the daily chart has been lower and the price has declined 1/3 from the low of 219 to 320-3/4, making this a support level. May 18 the price advanced above the previous day’s top for the first time since May 8.
日图上的每日高点已降低，从219到320.75已降低三分之一，这是支撑位。5月18日的价格第一次上升到自5月8日以来的高点。

May 23, July soybeans high 301. Please note that the half-way point between 320-3/4 and 284½ is 302-5/8. This is the first resistance level or selling level because the main trend has already turned down on the 2-day chart, and May 24 will be the sixth day’s advance.
5月23日，七月大豆价位301。请注意320.75与284.5的中值302.625。因为二日图已经向下，这是第一个阻力位，也是卖出位。5月24日将是第六天上扬。

Therefore it is important to watch for a change in trend when the price is up 7 days from the low, and especially when it is around an important half-way point. When July beans make top on this rally and decline and break the double bottom at 284, they will then indicate the halfway point between 219 and 320-3/4, which is 269-7/8. Note that there is a series of tops and bottoms on the daily high and low chart between 267 and 271, but the old top at 264, made on March 27, is important for support. Note the 5/8 point between 405 and 44 is 269-5/8 and 5/8 of 436-3/4 is 273. 7/8 of 276½ to 201½ is 267, and ¼ between 201½ and 436-3/4 is 260-3/8.
因此，当价位从低点持续上涨7天时，需要非常重视，观察趋势的变化，特别是在重要的中值附近时。当七月大豆回调形见顶和跌破284双底时，这将预示着（到达）219和320.75的中值267.875。注意在日高低点图上的267与271之间有一连串的顶底，但是3月27日形成的老顶部264是一个重点支撑位。注意405与44的八分之五处的269.625，136.75与273.875的八分之五处的273，276.5与201.5的八分之七处的267，201.5与436.75的四分之一处260.375。

You should have all of these important resistance levels marked on your Daily and 2-day charts.
你应当将这些重要的阻力水平标记在日图或者两日图上。

TIME RESISTANCE LEVELS
时间阻力水平

You can figure Time Resistance Levels the same as you figure Price Resistance Levels.
你可以向描述价格阻力水平一样描述时间阻力水平。

Divide the year into 8 equal parts, which is approximately 45 days each, and divide the year by 3 which gives 120 days or 4 months. Watch these time periods for important changes. Start to figure time from extreme high and extreme low levels and do not use the calendar year.
将一年分成8等份，每份大约45天，一年分成3等份，每份120天即4个月。观察这些时间周期的重大变化。以极高或极低点为起始起点，而不是以历法上的年（做起点）。

Example: 1947, Nov. 29 was high on wheat and there was a double top on Jan.16, 1948. Therefore, the time period should be figured from these dates. May soybeans also reached high on Jan. 16, 1948. On Feb. 9, 1948, May soybeans sold at 201½ which was the last extreme low. Using this time period and adding 90 days or ¼ of a year, you would expect a change in trend about May 8, 1950, and this was the exact day soybeans reached top. The last extreme low on July beans was Feb. 6, 1950, just 3 days from the low date of 1948. May soybeans also made the last extreme low on Feb.3, 1950. Suppose that the seasonal trend continues down on wheat, you would watch for change in trend around August 8 to 10, and August 23 and 25 in 1950. However, apply all of the rules and follow the trend indications on the 2-day chart as they develop. Analyze all the other grain options in the same way that we have analyzed July soybeans.
例如：1947年11月29日，麦子达到高点，且1948年1月16日有个双顶。因此，时间周期应该从这些日子开始，五月大豆在1948年1月16日也达到顶部。1948年2月9日，五月大豆卖出价格为201.5，到达新低。用这个时间周期加上90天（四分之一年），就会得到趋势变化日期大约在1950年5月8日，这正是大豆到达顶部的准确日期。1950年2月6日七月黄豆达新低，正好与1948年低点位置差3天。五月黄豆也在1950年2月3日到达底部，假设麦子也具有这种季节性的下跌趋势，你应当观察1950年8月8日至10日，8月23日到25日附近趋势的变化。我们也可以应用分析七月黄豆时的相同规则方法，在两日图上跟随趋势指示分析所有谷物指标。

Remember, the more time you put in studying and learning, the more profits you will take out later. Never guess; follow rules and wait for a definite indication before you make a trade.
请牢记，你学习研究的时间越长，你就会获得更多的利润。一定要跟随趋势并等待出现明显的信号才可以进行交易，千万不可以胡乱猜测。

May 23, 1950 W.D. GANN
威廉姆·江恩于1950年5月23日

翻译完毕，有些段落翻译的连自己也看不懂。还请方家指正吧。

辛苦了！