2-DAY CHART MOVES TIME TURNS
二日转向图
Long year[s] of experience have proved that the Daily High and Low Chart does not give the best indication of a change in trend, because one day is too short a period of time. The 2-day chart moves, which are recorded in line moves, means moves of 2 days or more up or down. If a grain option starts advancing and only has reactions lasting one day, you do not record these reactions at all; but when a move lasts two days or more, you move the line on the chart down as long as bottoms are lower. After the price advances, making higher bottoms and higher tops for two days or more, you move the line on the 2-day chart up to the high of each day until there is another reversal.
多年的经验已经证明日图不能很好的表示趋势的变化,毕竟一天是很短的时间。二日运动图就是用运动的线记录两天的多个顶底。如果一个谷物品种开始上涨,仅持续一天的反转下跌,你就没有任何必要记录这个反转,但是当这个反转持续两天或者两天以上的时候,你就要在图上把线移动到底部以下。价格上涨后,形成高底和高顶持续两天或两天以上,你就要在二日图上向上将线移动到高于任何一天价格的地方,直到另一个反转的出现。
When prices are at very high levels and fluctuations run from 7¢ to 10¢ per bushel each day, or more, the 2-day chart will often give a reversal or a time turn which would not be shown on a 3-day chart.
当价格处于高水平且每日波动在7美分至10美分/蒲式耳,或者更高,二日图常常会显示一个反向或周期变化的标志,而三日图却不能显示。
Example: July soybeans advanced from Nov. 22, 1949, advanced to Dec. 5th, making one reverse move on the 2-day chart. From December until February 2-6, 1950, each move on the 2-day chart was a lower top, showing that the main trend was down. On Feb. 6 the price declined to 219. You would buy at this level because, if you look at your resistance card, you will find that 218-3/8 is one half of the highest price at which May beans ever sold; therefore you would buy either May or July beans against this important half-way point, and place a stop-loss order at 217; but if you waited for the 2-day chart to show a change in trend you would buy when July soybeans crossed 225, when they were above the last top on the 2-day chart. From this time on there were six swings up on the 2-day chart, with bottoms and tops higher; and if you kept a Stop-loss Order just below the bottoms on the 2-day chart, you would have gotten the benefit of the complete move with a profit of nearly of $1 per bushel.
例如:七月大豆从1949年11月22涨至12月5日,在二日图上出现一个反向运动。从1949年12月到1950年2月4~6日,二日图呈现低顶,说明主要趋势向下。2月6日,价格跌至219。如果你查看下自己的阻力单,你就该在这个位置下买入单,因为218.375是五月大豆售出的历史最高点的一半。因此,你可以在这个重要位置中点买入五月或七月大豆,并在217位置设置止损单。但是,如果你想等到二日图中显示出趋势的变化的(标志),你可以在七月大豆破225点时买入,这时在二日图上它位于最后一个高点之上。这时二日图上有六波向上的趋势,顶底在不断升高。如果你将止损单下在底部下面,你将在整个趋势中获得大约1美元/蒲式耳的利润。
From the high of 436-3/4 in 1948 to the low of 201½ on May soybeans gives a half-way point of 319-1/8. July beans sold at 320-3/4 on May 8, and May soybeans sold at 323-3/4. If you had sold out and gone short around 319, you would have been right and would have made big profits in a few days. Note that from March 27 to March 30, 1950, July beans declined 16¢ per bushel in 3 days; this was the greatest reaction in price and time. Note the next reaction from April 25 to 27, a 2-day reaction with a decline of 11¢ per bushel, a smaller decline than the previous reaction, both in time and price, and no indication that the trend had turned.
五月黄豆从1948年的436.75高点到201.5低点的中值点是319.125。5月8日七月黄豆价格为320.75,五月黄豆价格为323.75。如果你在319点附近卖出或卖空,你是正确的,你将在短短几天内获得丰厚的利润。记住1950年3月27日至30日,七月黄豆在3天中跌了16美分/蒲式耳,这是价格和时间上的狂跌。记住下一个4月25日至27日,2天跌了11美分/蒲式耳,在价格和时间上,都比前一个下跌小些,(下跌的)趋势没有变化的迹象。
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-7-31 9:39:42编辑过]