第二章： 谷物交易技术方法及趋势指标（江恩期货教程中文版）——004 [复制链接]

Page 37
CONTENTS
Page
CAPITAL REQUIRED..............................................................................................................1
KIND OF CHARTS YOU SHOULD KEEP ..............................................................................2
HOW TO KEEP THE CHART FOR THE TREND INDICATOR..............................................2
New High and New Low the Same Day –– Within Day
HOW TO USE STOP LOSS ORDERS ......................................................................................3
WHEN NOT TO TRADE...........................................................................................................4
TRADING INSTRUCTIONS .....................................................................................................4
BUYING AND SELLING POINTS
Rule #1: Trading on Trend Line Indications Only ..................................................4
2: Buying at Double or Triple Bottoms.........................................................4
3: Selling at Double or Triple Tops...............................................................5
4: Fourth Time at the Same Level.................................................................5
5: Ascending or Rising Bottoms after a Triple Bottom.................................5
6: Descending or Lower Tops after a Triple Top..........................................5
7: 7 to 10-Day Rule for Active, Fast-moving Markets..................................5
PYRAMIDING
Rule #8: How to Pyramid ........................................................................................6
9: The Run or Pyramiding Move ..................................................................6
10: Pyramiding on Trend Line Indications Only ............................................6
11: Safest Pyramiding Rule.............................................................................7
12: Fast Markets and Wide Fluctuations.........................................................7
13: When not to Pyramid ................................................................................7
HOW TO DETERMINE CHANGE IN TREND
Rule#14: Minor Trend Indicator...............................................................................8
15: Main Trend Indicator ................................................................................8
16: Breakaway Points......................................................................................8
17: Second and Third Higher Bottoms and Lower Tops.................................8
18: Sections of a Move....................................................................................8
19: 3 Full-Cent Indications at Bottom or Top.................................................9
20: Sharp 2-day Signal Move..........................................................................9
IMPORTANCE OF OPENING AND CLOSING PRICES
Rule#21: Signal Top Day .........................................................................................9
22: Signal Bottom Day....................................................................................9
23: Closing Near the Top or Bottom and Opening Higher or Lower............10
24: A Narrow Day after a Sharp Decline or a Sharp Advance......................10
25: Closing at the Same Levels for a Series of Days ....................................10
26: Three Tops or Bottoms near the Same Level & Closing Price ...............10
SPACE CHARTS –– Rules for active markets at High Levels................................................11
HOURLY CHART ...................................................................................................................11
3-DAY CHART OR MAIN TREND INDICATOR....................................................................11
How to Make Up 3-Day Chart –– Exception to Rule...................................................12
Indications for Change in Trend ...................................................................................12
Rule#27: Crossing Tops or Breaking Bottoms of 3-day Moves ............................12
28: First 3-Day Reaction or Rally .................................................................12
29: The Third Move on 3-Day Chart ............................................................13
How to Combine Trend Line Indicator and 3-Day Chart .............................................13
RESISTANCE LEVELS ...........................................................................................................13
Range of Fluctuation.....................................................................................................14
Highest Selling Price ....................................................................................................14

Page 38
CONTENTS (Contd.)
Page
RESISTANCE LEVELS (Contd.)
Most Important Grain Movements to Consider............................................................14
Order of Resistance Levels...........................................................................................15
The Average or Halfway Point .....................................................................................15
Next Resistance Level after the Main Halfway Point has been broken........................15
Resistance Points Near Same Levels ............................................................................16
How to Look Up Resistance Levels .............................................................................16
Multiples of 12..............................................................................................................16
Lost Motion ..................................................................................................................17
WEEKLY HIGH AND LOW CHART ......................................................................................17
Three Weeks’ Moves....................................................................................................18
Seven to Ten Weeks’ Moves ........................................................................................18
HOW TO DETERMINE CULMINATIONS AND CHANGES IN TREND..............................19
FOUR RULES:
Rule #1: Time Rule................................................................................................19
2: Swing Bottom and Tops..........................................................................19
3: Space or Price Movements......................................................................19
4: Resistance Levels....................................................................................20
AVERAGE SPACE MOVEMENT..............................................................................20
WHEN GRAIN IS IN THE STRONGEST OR WEAKEST POSITION ....................20
EXAMPLE: May Rye....................................................................................................... 20-21
COMPARISON OF PRICE AND TIME MOVES.............................................................. 22-23

目录

必要的资金.............................................................................................1
收集整理各类图表....................................................................2
如何收集图表.............................................2
日内新高和新低––如何止损 .....................................................................3
何时空仓................................................................................4
交易指令 .............................................................................................4
买点和卖点
规则1: 只根据趋势指示交易 ..................................................4
2: 买在双底或者三重底.........................................................4
3: 卖在双底或者三重顶...............................................................5
4: 第四次到达相同水平.................................................................5
5: 上涨或者从三重底回调的底部 .................................5
6: 下跌或者从三重顶反弹后的顶部..........................................5
7: 在快速活跃的市场中运用7－10日规则..................................5
何时加码（金字塔式交易）
规则8: 金字塔式交易方法 .......................................................6
9: 移动加码 ..................................................................6
10: 仅在趋势出现指示时加码 ............................................6
11: 安全的加码规则.............................................................................7
12: 快速和大幅波动的市场.........................................................7
13: 何时不能加码................................................................................7
如何确定趋势的改变
规则14:次要趋势指示.....................................8
15: 主要趋势指示 ................................................................................8
16: 出逃点......................................................................................8
17: 第二个和第三个较高的底部及较低的底部................................8
18: 移动区间....................................................................................8

好，支持！！

希望以后多些这样的文章，乃至运用经验、案例的交流。

　　19:顶或底的三分法.................................9
　　20: 二日图中的急速调整.....................................9
　　重要的开收盘价格
　　规则21: 日线顶部信号 .............................9
　　22: 日线底部信号............................................9
　　23: 收在顶部或底部和开在高点或者低点............10
　　24: 急速下跌或者拉升后的　整时间......................10
　　25: 连续数天收在同一水平....................................10
　　26: 收盘在同一水平附近的三次顶部或底部 ...............10
　　空间图表 ––活跃市场中的高级规则.........................11
　　小时图表 ...................................................11
　　三日图表或者主要趋势指示................................11
　　如何制作除了三日图外的图表...............................12
　　趋势改变的迹象 ........................................12
　　规则#27: 突破顶部与底部的三日图 ............................12
　　28: 三日图中的第一次反弹或者回调 ......................12
　　29: 三日图的第三次运行 .................................13
　　如何将趋势线指标和三日图结运用 .........................13
　　阻力级别 ...............................................13
　　波动区间..........................................14
　　最高卖价 .....................................14
　　留意谷物最重要的价格变动........................14
　　阻级别顺序.........................15
　　中间平均点位 .................................15
　　突破主要中间价位后的下一个阻力位...............15
　　接近同一水平的阻力点 ...............................16
　　如何分辨阻力级别 ..............................16
　　12的倍数.......................................16
　　无效的市场运行.................................17
　　周高低点图表 .....................................17
　　三周运行图表..........................................18
　　7到10周的移动 ....................................18
　　如何确定顶点和趋势的变化？.......................19
　　4条规则:
　　规则#1:时间规则........................19
　　2: 顶与底的波动..................................19
　　3: 空间与价格变动................................19
　　4: 阻力级别..............20

19:顶或底的三分法...............................9
20: 二日图中的急速调整...........................9
重要的开收盘价格
规则21: 日线顶部信号 .............................9
22: 日线底部信号..................................9
23: 收在顶部或底部和开在高点或者低点............10
24: 急速下跌或者拉升后的　整时间......................10
25: 连续数天收在同一水平....................................10
26: 收盘在同一水平附近的三次顶部或底部 ...............10
 空间图表 ––活跃市场中的高级规则........................11
　　小时图表 ..............................................11
三日图表或者主要趋势指示........................11
如何制作除了三日图外的图表.................................12
趋势改变的迹象 ....................................12
规则#27: 突破顶部与底部的三日图 ............................12
28: 三日图中的第一次反弹或者回调 ............................12
29: 三日图的第三次运行 ..............................13
如何将趋势线指标和三日图结运用 ..................13
阻力级别 ...............................................13
波动区间............................................14
最高卖价 .............................................14
留意谷物最重要的价格变动..........................14
阻级别顺序......................................15
中间平均点位 ....................................15
突破主要中间价位后的下一个阻力位........................15
接近同一水平的阻力点 ................................16
如何分辨阻力级别 .................................16
12的倍数............................................16
无效的市场运行...........................................17
周高低点图表 ....................................................17
三周运行图表..................................................18
7到10周的移动 .....................................18
如何确定顶点和趋势的变化？..............................19
4条规则:
规则#1:时间规则...................................19
2: 顶与底的波动.................................19
3: 空间与价格变动..........................19
4: 阻力级别..................................20
平均价格变动..................................20
谷物何时处于最强和最弱位....................20
例子：五月黑麦................................... 20-21
价格与时间波动对比................................ 22-23

小麦、玉米、黑麦、燕麦的技术方法和趋势指导

必要的资金
The first and most important thing to know when you start to trade is the amount of capital required that will enable you to continue to trade 1, 2, 3, 5 or 20 years and never lose your capital. If you always have capital to start trading again, you can recoup losses and make money, but if you risk all of your capital on one or two trades and lose it, then the chances are against you. "Safety first" is the rule to apply.
在开始交易前，首要的事情是必须确定你有一定能维持1年、2年、3年、5年或者20年交易的必要的奖金，并且决不让他亏损。如果你总有资金一不断交易，你就能弥补损失而赚钱，但如果你想冒险在一两次交易中投入所有的资金而亏损，那么赢利的机会就与你擦肩而过。“安全第一”是你必须要记住的规则。
The unit of trading in Wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade is 5,000 bushels, altho you can trade in job lots of 1,000 bushels. When Wheat is selling between 50 and 75¢ per bushel, you need a capital of $750 to trade in 5,000 bushels. Your stop loss orders should be 1 to 2¢ per bushel under a daily bottom or under the Trend Line bottom, according to the rules.
CBOT小麦的交易单位是5000蒲式耳，然而你也能交易1000蒲式耳的小单。当小麦卖价在50－75美分/蒲式耳，保证金将是750美元/5000蒲式耳。按规则止损应设在日线底部1-2美分/蒲式耳处或在趋势线下面。

If your average risk is 1½¢ per bushel or $75 on each 5,000 bushels, you could lose 10 consecutive times before your capital of $750 would be wiped out. This has never happened and never will happen if you trade according to the rules and buy and sell on Trend Line bottoms and tops and on double or triple bottoms and tops. It is seldom that you will ever have three consecutive losses. However, should you have three consecutive losses, which would reduce your capital 200 to $250, then try to make your next trade of 5,000 bushels where your risk will only be 1¢ per bushel.

如果你冒平均每次1.5美分/蒲式耳或75美元/5000蒲式耳的险，你的750美元连续亏损10次才能暴仓。但是这是决不会发生而且从来没有出现的，前提是你必须依照在趋势线的顶部与底部和双或者三重顶底进行买卖规则。很少会出现连续三次的亏损的。然而你可能会连续三次亏损造成资金缩水200－250美元，那么就要尝试下次在交易/5000蒲式耳时只能冒仅亏损1美分/蒲式耳的风险。
If you have three trades that show a total loss of 5¢ per bushel and then you get a market running and make 10¢ per bushel, you are 5¢ per bushel ahead. Of course, many times in very active markets, with wide range, you will start a pyramid which will result in profits of 50¢ per bushel or even $1 per bushel before your pyramid is closed out. The main thing to do is to always go with the trend and never buck the trend, regardless of how much capital you have.

如果你三次交易总共损失5美分/蒲式耳，然后你在后市交易中赚了10美分/蒲式耳，除去前面的亏损，你赚了5美分/蒲式耳。当然，在一个大多数是非常活跃而大幅波动的市场中，加码操作将比未加码操作多赚50美分/蒲式耳或者1美元/蒲式耳。所以最重要的事情就是不管你有多少资金你总是要跟随趋势决不背离趋势。

When Wheat is selling between 75¢ and $1, then you should have a capital of $1,000 to trade in 5,000-bushel lots. When Wheat is selling between $1.00 and $1.50 per bushel, your capital should be $1,500. When Wheat is selling between $1.50 and $2.00, your capital should be $2,000.00 for each 5,000-bushel lot.
当小麦卖价在75美分－1美元/蒲式耳之间时，你应该有1,000美元操作5,000多蒲式耳。当价格在1－1.5美元/蒲式耳之间时，保证金需要1,500美元。在1.5－2美元时，需要2,000美元才能操作5,000多蒲式耳。

CORN  AND  RYE: Your capital for trading in these grains when they are selling  between 25 and 40¢ per bushel should be $500. When they are selling between 40 and 75¢ per bushel, your capital should be $750. When they are selling between $1.00 and $1.75 per bushel, the capital required is $2,000. However, brokers may require more margin at the higher price levels.
玉米和黑麦：当玉米和黑麦的卖价在25－40美分/蒲式耳之间时，保证金需要500美元。当在40－75美分/蒲式耳时，需要750美元，当在1－1.75美元/蒲式耳时，需要2000美元。当价格在更高的水平时，经纪人商要求你的帐面上有更多的保证金。
KIND OF CHARTS YOU SHOULD KEEP
整理保存各类型的图表
You should always keep up a daily high and low chart with opening and closing on it and　keep your Trend Line on this Daily Chart.
你应该始终保存含有每日开收盘价的日图表，并且画上趋势线。
You should also keep up a 3-day Chart separately, and a Weekly high and low chart.
Your should have a monthly chart going back 15 to 20 years so you will know where the important tops and bottoms are, where old Resistance Levels have been made. This is often very helpful.
同样也要保存的个别的三日图表、周日高低点图表。还要有包含有过去15－20年的月图表，这样你才能知道行情重要的顶部与底部，以及历史的重要的阻力水平。这些对你研判行情是非常有帮助的。

CHART FOR THE TREND LINE INDICATOR
图表上的趋势线指示

Keep up a daily high and low chart on two of the active options and mark the opening and closing prices on this chart.
在一张具有两个活跃行情的日高低点图表上标记上开盘与收盘价格。
The Trend Indicator or Trend Line is obtained by following the daily moves. As long as the option is advancing and making higher bottoms and higher tops, the Indicator or Trend Line moves up each day to the highest price and continues to move up as long as the market makes higher tops and higher bottoms.
通过跟随每日价格移动来获取趋势指标或趋势线。 只要选择的行情一直持续并且创出更高的底部和更高的顶部，趋势指标或趋势线每天提高到最高的价格并且只要市场继续移动创出更高的顶和更高底部。
The first day that the option reverses and makes a lower bottom by 1/4¢ or more, you move the Trend Line down to that bottom. Then, if on the following day the option moves down to a lower bottom, you move the Trend Line to the low of that day and continue to move it down as long as it makes lower bottoms.
如果首日选择的行情反向运行并且创出0.25美分或更低的一个稍低的底部，就将趋势线移动到那底部下面。 那么，如果在第二天选择点移动到较低的底部下面，你移动趋势线到那天低点的并且继续向下移动它，只要它创出较低的底部。
Then, the first day that the option records a higher bottom and a higher top, you move the Trend Line up again to the top of that day.
This Trend Lime simply follows the swings of an option.
那么，第一天选择点记录更高的底部和更高的顶，你移动趋势线再到那天的顶上面。
趋势完全紧密跟随一个选择点的摆动。( Lime,为石灰 黏鸟胶的意思，对不上号，不知如何译，引申为紧密？）

NEW HIGH AND NEW LOW THE SAME DAY
日内新高和新低
If an option makes a higher top in the early part of the day than the previous day, then before the market closes, goes down and makes a lower bottom than the previous day, you move the Trend Line up to the higher top reached in the early party of the day, then move it down to the bottom made later in the day.
The idea of the Trend Indicator is to show each higher top and lower bottom so that you will always know where an option starts down from the last top or starts up from the last bottom
如果在选择点的当天早盘创出一个比上一交易日更高的顶部，那么在收盘前继续下跌，创出比上一交易日更低的底部，就要将趋势线延伸移动的当天的早盘部分，然后再移动的当天的后面的底部
趋势指标的概念是展现出每一个更高的顶和较低的底部，以便你总能分辨从行情是如何从最后的顶部下跌或者从最后的底部开始上涨到你的起始选择点。

WITHIN DAY 日内行情
By a "within day" I mean a day when an option makes a higher bottom but does not make a higher top than a previous day; in other words, it remains within the range of the previous day.
我定义在一天内的波动为“即日行情”，当选择点创出一个比上一交易日更高的底部但是未创出更高的顶部；换句话说，他是持续上一个交易日的行情。（这段不一定准确）
If an option is declining and only rallies one day, making a higher bottom but not making a higher top, then breaks to new lows, I do not consider it important or advisable to move the Trend Line up; neither would I move the stop loss order down above this "within day" top unless it was after a prolonged decline in a fast-moving market.
如果一个选择点正在下跌并且只反弹一天，行情做出更高的底部但未做出更高的顶部， 然后突破到新低， 我认为其不重要或向上移动趋势线是不可取的；也不我将止损移动向上移动的日内顶部，除非它出现在一个快速移动的下跌延长市场内。
Apply this same rule when an option is advancing and makes a lower top but not a lower bottom the same day, remaining within the range of the previous day; then if it advances to higher levels the following day, the Trend Line should not be moved down and stop loss orders should not be moved up under this bottom unless there has been a prolonged advance in a fast-moving market.
当一个选择点正在上涨时使用同样的规则，市场做出较低的顶但并非是当日的较低的底部，在上一交易日的范围内波动；那么如果它在第二天创出一个更主的级别，那么趋势线就不要移动并且不用提高止损，除非市场快速移动并且上涨延长。
Within moves last sometimes as much as 2 or 3 days, that is, remaining 2 or 3 days on a side move without breaking the bottom of a previous active day or crossing the top of that day.
日内行情有时会持续2或3天， 那就意味着，在未突破先前的活跃行情日的底部或穿过那天的顶部时，行情将待续盘整2或3天。
When a change occurs after a move of this kind, go with it. If it breaks the bottom after a series of within days, go short. If it crosses the top after a series of within days, consider the trend up and go long.
当在这类的行情以后发生变化时，伴随它的是。如果它突然连续数天突破底部，并且如果连续数天穿过顶部，可以认为趋势向上为长期多头市场。