第一章　投机是一门有利可图的职业： 谷物市场概述－(江恩期货教程中文版 )－003 [复制链接]

　　CHAPTER 1
　　SPECULATION A　PROFITABLE PROFESSION:A COURSE OF INSTRUCTIONS ON GRAINS
　　第1章： 投机是一门有利可图的职业： 谷物市场概述

　　A Course of Instructions With Time Tested Practical Rules of Trading in Grains.

　　行之有效的谷物实用交易规则

　　In 1911 after I had made a great success trading in stocks and commodities, there was a public demand for a book with my rules for trading successfully. This demand was answered by my first small book, “Speculation A Profitable Profession”. As the years went by I learned more about the market and realized that others needed the help that I could give them and I wrote more books to help others who were trying to help themselves.
　　在1911年我在股票和期货交易市场取得了巨大的成功后，公众要求我写一本交易成功的规则的手册。这种要求已经在我的《投机是一门有利可图的职业》书中给予回答。随着时间的推移，我在市场中获得了更多的经验，让我意识到应该写更多的给予那些需要帮助的朋友们。
　　In May 1954 I am nearing my 76th Birthday and am writing this new course of instructions not to make money for I have more income than I can spend but realizing the demand and the need for more knowledge about future trading by so many people I now give the benefit of my 52 years experience to help those who need it. The price of this course is made reasonable in order that men and women with a small account of money can get a market education and start with a small capital and make a success provided they follow the rules after they learn them.
　　写这本新规则教程是在1954年5月正是我快过76岁生日时候，金钱对我已无丝毫意义。我的收入远大于日常消费。因此写本书的目的是将我在期货交易市场上52年的好的经验给予那些在需要更多知识和帮助的人们。假如认真学习了本书的规则后，大家可以开一个小的资金帐户在市场上开始交易并会让你赚钱。
　　My experience has proved that it is more profitable to trade in commodities than stocks and you can make larger profits on the same amount of capital with smaller risk. When you trade in commodities you are trading in the necessities of life.Commodity prices obey the law of supply and demand and follow a seasonal trend most of the time.
　　我的经验证明，商品期货比股票市场能让你更能赢利，，因为你用同样的资金和更小的风险能博取更大的利润。商品期货交易与你平时生活中的交易无多大的区别。商品价格大多数时间服从和跟随季节性的供需规律和状况。
　　When you learn the rules and follow them you eliminate trading on Hope, Fear,and Guesswork which is nothing but gamble and you cannot afford to risk your money gambling. You must follow mathematical rules which I have proved to be realistic guide in trading. You must prove to yourself that the rules have always worked in the past and they will work in the future. When you have the proof follow the rules and you will make speculation a profitable profession.
　　当您学会规则并且遵循这些规则交易时，你必须抛弃你对市场的一厢情愿和恐惧，因为你的赌博和你的臆测将会给你的资金造成极大的风险。 您必须遵循我给出的已经被当前市场证明的数学规则。 您必须亲自验证这些规则在市场上过去和未来的运用。 当您已经验证并且遵循规则进行交易，你将会在这投机市场上获得成功。

-----------------------------2006-7-19 1:26:43第一版

　　who are accustomed to giving orders to others and have them carried out will often when they get into the market, especially for the first time, expect the market to follow their orders or move their way. They must learn that they cannot make the market trend go their way. They must follow the market trend as is indicated by fixed rules and protect their capital and profits by the use of STOP LOSS orders.  There is no harm in making a few mistakes and a few small losses because small losses are the expense of a successful speculator.  If you intend to make speculation a profitable profession you must learn all the rules and apply all of them to determine the trend. Professional men, such as lawyers, doctors, accountants and engineers spend years in training and a large amount of money to learn how to succeed in their chosen profession. You must spend time and money to learn the profession and become a successful speculator or investor.
　　那些在生活中习惯发号施令并让别人强行执行他们指令的人当进入市场时，尤其是初次进入市场时经常希望市场遵循他们的指令或按照他们的愿望变化。他们必须认识到市场是不可能按照他们的意图运行。他们必须遵从市场规则所显示的趋势并且通过设置止损来保护资金和利益。犯一点错误以及蒙受一点损失是没有害处的，因为少量的损失是一个成功投机者的学费。如果你打算进入投机这个有利可图的领域，你必须学会所有的规则并且应用这些规则去确定趋势。专业人员，就像律师，医生，会计以及工程师花费多年时间和大量金钱去学习怎样在自己选择的职业中获得成功。你必须花费时间和金钱去学此专业从而变成一个成功的投机者或投资人。

---　后面待续

　　A Course of Instructions With Time Tested Practical Rules of Trading in Grains.

　　行之有效的谷物实用交易规则

　　In 1911 after I had made a great success trading in stocks and commodities, there was a public demand for a book with my rules for trading successfully. This demand was answered by my first small book, “Speculation A Profitable Profession”. As the years went by I learned more about the market and realized that others needed the help that I could give them and I wrote more books to help others who were trying to help themselves.
　　在1911年我在股票和期货交易市场取得了巨大的成功后，公众要求我写一本交易成功的规则的手册。这种要求已经在我的《投机是一门有利可图的职业》书中给予回答。随着时间的推移，我在市场中获得了更多的经验，让我意识到应该写更多的给予那些需要帮助的朋友们。
　　In May 1954 I am nearing my 76th Birthday and am writing this new course of instructions not to make money for I have more income than I can spend but realizing the demand and the need for more knowledge about future trading by so many people I now give the benefit of my 52 years experience to help those who need it. The price of this course is made reasonable in order that men and women with a small account of money can get a market education and start with a small capital and make a success provided they follow the rules after they learn them.
　　写这本新规则教程是在1954年5月正是我快过76岁生日时候，金钱对我已无丝毫意义。我的收入远大于日常消费。因此写本书的目的是将我在期货交易市场上52年的好的经验给予那些在需要更多知识和帮助的人们。假如认真学习了本书的规则后，大家可以开一个小的资金帐户在市场上开始交易并会让你赚钱。
　　My experience has proved that it is more profitable to trade in commodities than stocks and you can make larger profits on the same amount of capital with smaller risk. When you trade in commodities you are trading in the necessities of life.Commodity prices obey the law of supply and demand and follow a seasonal trend most of the time.
　　我的经验证明，商品期货比股票市场能让你更能赢利，，因为你用同样的资金和更小的风险能博取更大的利润。商品期货交易与你平时生活中的交易无多大的区别。商品价格大多数时间服从和跟随季节性的供需规律和状况。
　　When you learn the rules and follow them you eliminate trading on Hope, Fear,and Guesswork which is nothing but gamble and you cannot afford to risk your money gambling. You must follow mathematical rules which I have proved to be realistic guide in trading. You must prove to yourself that the rules have always worked in the past and they will work in the future. When you have the proof follow the rules and you will make speculation a profitable profession.
　　当您学会规则并且遵循这些规则交易时，你必须抛弃你对市场的一厢情愿和恐惧，因为你的赌博和你的臆测将会给你的资金造成极大的风险。 您必须遵循我给出的已经被当前市场证明的数学规则。 您必须亲自验证这些规则在市场上过去和未来的运用。 当您已经验证并且遵循规则进行交易，你将会在这投机市场上获得成功。

HOW TO MAKE SPECULATION A PROFITABLE PROFESSION
如何进行有利可图的投机？

Speculation or investment is the best business in the world if you make a business of it. But in order to make a success of it you must study and be prepared and not guess, follow inside information, or depend on hope or fear. If you do you will
fail. Your success depends on knowing the right kind of rules and following them.

如果你想做生意，投机或者投资是这个世界上最好的买卖！但是在操作之前你必须认真学习和作好准备。任何猜测、跟随内部消息、希望和恐惧都将导致你失败。你只有通过依靠正确的方法方可成功。

　　FUNDAMENTAL RULES

　　基本规则

　　Keep this well in mind. For commodities to show up trend and continue to advance they must make higher bottoms and higher tops. When the trend is down they must make lower tops and lower bottoms and continue on down to lower levels. But remember prices can move in a narrower trading range for weeks or months or even years and not make a new high or a new low. But after a long period of time when commodities break into new lows they indicate lower prices and after a long period of time when they advance above old highs or old tops they are in a stronger position and indicate higher prices. This is the reason why you must have a chart long ways back in order to see just what position a commodity is in and at what stage it is between extreme high and extreme low.

　　将这些规则熟记在心。当市场趋势向上时，其将走出更高的底部和更高的顶部。反之，将向下走出更低的顶部和底部。除此之外，价格可能会持续数周、数月甚至数年的区间盘整。但是当经过长时间的震荡后，价格突破前期低点，将预示着会产生新低，同理，当突破前期历史顶部后，将会创历史新高。这就是你需要拥有包含所有历史高低点的完整的市场数据图表的原因。

　　THE KIND OF CHARTS TO KEEP UP

　　图表的预测功能

　　Remember the old Chinese proverb “One good picture is worth 10,000 words”.You should make up charts and study the picture of a commodity before you make a trade. You should have a weekly high and low chart, a monthly high and low chart and a yearly high and low chart. A yearly high and low chart should run back 5, 10 or 20 years if you can get records that far. Monthly high and low chart should go back for at least 10 years and the weekly high and low should go back for 2 or 3 years. When commodities are very active you should have a daily high and low chart. This need not go back more than a few months. Start the daily chart after the commodity breaks into great activity.

　　中国有句谚语：一图抵万言。因此在你确定交易前应该整理和研究各品种图表。你平时应该准备好包含有年、月、周高低点的周期图表。你最好能收集到能记录有过去5年、10年或20年的年线和至少10年的月线及2－3年的周线的历史高低点数据图表。当行情开始变得活跃时，可以不回顾前几个月的数据，这时你需要收集每天的高低点图表。当行情发生巨大突破后，开始记录每天的图表。

－－－－

东张西望：

中国有句古话:一图抵万言.因此在你确定交易前应该整理和研究各品种图表。你应该搜集包含有年、月、周高低点的周期图表。采集年的高低点的时候,你应该回顾5,10,20年的信息,如果你能得到更远的数据.采集月的高低点,你应该回顾至少10年的信息,而周的高低点你至少采集2,3年信息.当行情活跃，你需要采集每天的高低点图表的时候你需要回顾几个月的信息.当行情发生巨大突破后，开始记录每天的图表。

年的高低点:5,10,20年甚至更远的信息
月的高低点:10年的信息
周的高低点:2~3年的信息
日的高低点:几个月的信息

　　FOLLOW THE MAIN TREND

　　顺应主要趋势

　　You will always make money by following the main trend of commodities up or down. Remember that commodities are never too high to buy as long as the trend is up and they are never too low to sell as long as the trend is down. Never sell short just because the commodity is high or because you think it is too high. Never sell out and take profits just because the price is high. Buy and sell according to definite rules and not on hope, fear or guesswork. Never buy a commodity just because the commodity is low. There is usually a good reason why it is low and it can go lower.

　　顺序大势操作你会在期货市场中不断获利。记住：只要趋势向上，不要因为太高而不敢买，相反，只要趋势向下，也不要太低而不敢卖。绝对不要因为价格太高而做短期卖出或者你认为它已经涨太高了。不能因为价格太高而先卖出获利。买卖是依照明确的规则来操作而不是你对市场的期望、恐惧或臆测。同时也不能因为价格太低而买进。有充足的理由证明市场为什么会不断创出新低。

　　RULES FOR BUYING AND SELLING

　　买卖规则

　　The first thing to remember before you start to apply any rules is that you must always use a STOP-LOSS order to protect your capital. When making a trade remember that you can be wrong or that the market may change its trend and the STOP-LOSS order will protect you and limit your loss. A small loss or several small losses can easily be made back with one large profit, but when you let large losses run against you it is hard to make them back.

　　在接受这些规则前你首先记住必须永远要下“止损单”来保护资金的安全。因为你可以会在交易中犯错或者市场趋势改变时，所以在交易中要用“止损单”来保护和减小你的损失。一次大的赢利抵得过一次或者几次小的损失，反之一次大的损失再想打回来时则困难得多了。

　　2006年7月21日　0.06

This need not go back more than a few months.（如何翻译）

这样译合适否?

"这需要与过去几个月作比较."

俺E文丢得太久了,也没什么翻译经验.见笑哈.

对前后文来讲有点不恰当呢

　　PROVE ALL THINGS AND HOLD FAST TO THAT WHICH IS GOOD

　　The Bible tells us this and it is well worth remembering. Many people believe that it is wrong to buy at new high levels or to sell at new low levels but it is most profitable and you must prove this to yourself because when you do buy at newhigh levels or sell at new low levels you are going with the trend of the market and your chances for making profits are much better than guesswork or buying or selling on hope or fear.

　　PROLONGED ADVANCES

　　After commodities have had a prolonged advance and wind up with a fast, active, runaway market in most cases they come down very quickly and much faster or in a shorter period of time than when they go up. That is why you must keep up somedaily charts at the end of a fast move and keep up the weekly charts to determine the first change in trend and be able to go with it.

　　SHARP DECLINE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME

　　This usually follows a rapid advance and the first sharp declines which may last from one month to as much as seven weeks usually corrects an overbought position and leaves the market in position for a secondary advance.When you are able to catch the extremes at the end of any great time cycle you can make a large amount of money in one year’s time trading in fast active markets, and some very large profits in one month’s time. It makes no difference whether you catch the extreme low or the extreme high – the opportunities are great for making money providing you select the commodity that will lead.

　　LARGE PROFITS ON SMALL RISKS

　　You can make large profits on small risks provided you use a STOP LOSS order, and apply all the rules and wait for a definite  indication of a change in trend up or down before you make a trade.

　　FIXED IDEAS AND FIXED PRICES

　　Never get a fixed idea of just how high any price is going to go or just how low they are going. Never buy or sell on a price  that you fix because you may be trading on hope or fear and not following the trend of the market and applying rules which  will determine when the trend is changing.

　　TOO LATE OR TOO SOON

　　You can lose money or miss opportunity by getting into the market too soon or getting out too late. That is not waiting until  a definite change in trend is indicated, or failing to act in time when you see a definite change in trend. Wait until youhave a well defined indication that the trend is changed, then buy or sell. Follow all the rules in my book “How to Make  Profits on Commodities”. There are many rules in my book “How to Make Profits Trading in Commodities” which are not inthis course of instruction and by using all the rules you will make a greater success.

　　HOPE AND FEAR

　　I repeat this because I have seen so many people go broke trading on hope or fear. You will never succeed buying or selling  when you hope the market is going up or down. You will never succeed by making a trade because you fear the market isgoing up or down. Hope will ruin you, because it is nothing more than wishful thinking and provides no basis for action. Fear will often save you if you act quickly when you see that you are wrong. “The fear of the market is the beginning of wisdom”

　　. Knowledge which you can only obtain by deep study will help you make a success. The more you study past records the surer  you are to be able to detect the trend of the future.

　　MAKE THE MARKET MOVE YOUR WAY

　　You must learn to realize that you cannot make the market go your way, you must go the market’s way and must follow the   trend. Many successful business men（到这里就接上次的了）

"这需要作几个月的连续比较"

行吗?

顺应大势操作你会在期货市场中不断获利。记住：只要趋势向上，不要因为太高而不敢买，相反，只要趋势向下，也不要太低而不敢卖。绝对不要因为价格太高或者你认为它已经涨太高了而做短期卖出。不能因为价格太高而先卖出获利。买卖是依照明确的规则来操作而不是你对市场的期望、恐惧或臆测。同时也不能因为价格太低而买进。有充足的理由证明市场为什么会不断创出新低。

补了2字,顺了一下,黑水兄辛苦了,谢谢.