第一章　投机是一门有利可图的职业： 谷物市场概述－(江恩期货教程中文版 )－003 [复制链接]

前后文好象连贯不起来，等专业人员来看看。

　　PROVE ALL THINGS AND HOLD FAST TO THAT WHICH IS GOOD

　　坚持正确的方法

　　The Bible tells us this and it is well worth remembering. Many people believe that it is wrong to buy at new high levels or to sell at new low levels but it is most profitable and you must prove this to yourself because when you do buy at new high levels or sell at new low levels you are going with the trend of the market and your chances for making profits are much better than guesswork or buying or selling on hope or fear.

　　牢记《圣经》说这句话的深意。由于你坚持了正确的方法，即在常人眼中认为是错误的时候，坚决跟随市场趋势在创出新高后买进或在新低后卖出，由此获得了巨大利润，证明你获利机会比一味臆测、希望和恐惧多得多。（注：本段翻译非常不恰当，但是意思是正确的。）

　　PROLONGED ADVANCES

　　持久上涨的行情

　　After commodities have had a prolonged advance and wind up with a fast, active, runaway market in most cases they come down very quickly and much faster or in a shorter period of time than when they go up. That is why you must keep up some daily charts at the end of a fast move and keep up the weekly charts to determine the first change in trend and be able to go with it.

　　多数实践证明市场在结束一轮长期持久而活跃的上涨行情后将马上有一轮快速下跌或者短期内有一次比它上涨速度更快的下跌，这就是为什么前面让你必然收集活跃行情的周、日线图表的原因，这样你才能在第一时间确定并跟随趋势的变化。

　　2006-7-22 1:27:00

　　SHARP DECLINE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
　　短期暴跌
　　This usually follows a rapid advance and the first sharp declines which may last from one month to as much as seven weeks usually corrects an over bought position and leaves the market in position for a secondary advance.When you are able to catch the extremes at the end of any great time cycle you can make a large amount of money in one year’s time trading in fast active markets, and some very large profits in one month’s time. It makes no difference whether you catch the extreme low or the extreme high – the opportunities are great for making money providing you select the commodity that will lead.
　　通常在一个持续一月到七周时间的过分的上涨后，短期就会出现首次快速下跌的超买行为来调整，为中级上涨作好准备。在这个快速而活跃的市场中，当你能在一个大周期循环结束后抓住这个拐点，那么你可以在每年和每月中获得巨大的利润。只要选择商品这个存在无数机会的大宗期货市场作为你的主要投资方式，其赢利模式与你是否抓住关键顶与底是无关的。

　　LARGE PROFITS ON SMALL RISKS
　　以小风险换取大利润
　　You can make large profits on small risks provided you use a STOP LOSS order, and apply all the rules and wait for a definite indication of a change in trend up or down before you make a trade.
　　假如你在做交易前应用所有的规则，在上涨或下跌趋势改变中等待明确的进场机会，并用“止损单”进行保护，那么你将会用较小的风险获得巨大的利润。

　　HOW TO PROTECT PROFITS

　　保护你的盈利

　　After you have accumulated profits it is just as important to protect them with STOP-LOSS orders as it is to protect your original capital because once you have made profits it is your capital and STOP LOSS orders must be used to protect it.The most dangerous thing that you can do is to let a trade start going against you and lose back your profits. A STOP-LOSS order will protect the profits and you can always get in again when you are out, with capital. Remember when you are out of the market the only thing you can lose or miss is an opportunity.My 52 years of experience has taught me that thousands of people have gone broke trying to hold on until the trend turned. Avoid getting out of the market too soon after move starts when you have a small profit. This can be a great mistake. Get out of the market quickly as soon as you see that you have made a mistake. If you place a STOP LOSS order this will put you out of the market automatically.

　　必须要象保护本金一样用“止损单”保护你的既得赢利。因为你一旦获利，这些利润已经变成你的资本，所以必须要有止损意识。最危险的事是你后面开始逆势交易进而造成利润回吐。当你止损出场依然有本金让你有机会再次进场，因为“止损单”能始终保护你的利润。记住，当您在市场外面您唯一的损失只是失去或错过机会。我的52年经验告诉我很多人由于在市场已经发生转势时依然不清仓而导致破产。同时由于赚了些小钱不敢继续持有而太早离开市场却是犯了大错。当然在你发现已经犯错时要马上设定“止损单”自动离场。

　　FIXED IDEAS AND FIXED PRICES
　　不要固执已见
　　Never get a fixed idea of just how high any price is going to go or just how low they are going. Never buy or sell on a price that you fix because you may be trading on hope or fear and not following the trend of the market and applying rules which will determine when the trend is changing.
　　决不因为价格上升多高或者下跌多低都而固执已见。当市场趋势改变时，你要应用所有的规则顺应市场，决不在你期望和恐惧的价位进行买卖交易。

　　TOO LATE OR TOO SOON
　　不要错过机会
　　You can lose money or miss opportunity by getting into the market too soon or getting out too late. That is not waiting until  a definite change in trend is indicated, or failing to act in time when you see a definite change in trend. Wait until you have a well defined indication that the trend is changed, then buy or sell. Follow all the rules in my book “How to Make Profits on Commodities”. There are many rules in my book “How to Make Profits Trading in Commodities”which are not in this course of instruction and by using all the rules you will make a greater success.
　　进场太快或出场太慢将导致你亏损或者错过不少机会。当你看到市场发出了明确的信号或在一定时间内趋势如果未发生明显变化时不要再错过。一直等到有明确的信号出现时才进行买卖。遵循我的《如何在商品市场中获利》一书中的所有规则，其中的有不少规则是我的另外一本《如何在商品期货交易中获利》这本教程所没有的，结合所有的规则你将会赚取更多的利润。

　　HOPE AND FEAR
　　期望和恐惧

　　I repeat this because I have seen so many people go broke trading on hope or fear. You will never succeed buying or selling when you hope the market is going up or down. You will never succeed by making a trade because you fear the market is going up or down. Hope will ruin you, because it is nothing more than wishful thinking and provides no basis for action. Fear will often save you if you act quickly when you see that you are wrong. “The fear of the market is the beginning of wisdom”. Knowledge which you can only obtain by deep study will help you make a success. The more you study past records the surer you are to be able to detect the trend of the future.
　　我之所以反复声明这些规则是因为我看到不少人在期望与恐惧交易而破产。当你期望市场按你的意愿上涨或者下跌时决不会成功的。同时当你对市场怀有恐惧心理而去交易时也不会成功。对市场异想天开和毫无依据的期望，最终将会毁灭你。“对市场的敬畏是智慧起点”， 经常对市场经常怀有敬畏之心那么你在犯错时却能及时挽救你。通过深入研究市场之道将帮助你获得成功。不断研究市场过去的走势能帮你确定市场未来的趋势。

　　MAKE THE MARKET MOVE YOUR WAY
　　永远不要一劳永逸 
　　You must learn to realize that you cannot make the market go your way, you must go the market’s way and must follow the trend. Many successful business men who are accustomed to giving orders to others and have them carried out will often when they get into the market, especially for the first time, expect the market to follow their orders or move their way. They must learn that they cannot make the market trend go their way. They must follow the market trend as is indicated by fixed rules and protect their capital and profits by the use of STOP LOSS orders.  There is no harm in making a few mistakes and a few small losses because small losses are the expense of a successful speculator.  If you intend to make speculation a profitable profession you must learn all the rules and apply all of them to determine the trend. Professional men, such as lawyers, doctors, accountants and engineers spend years in training and a large amount of money to learn how to succeed in their chosen profession. You must spend time and money to learn the profession and become a successful speculator or investor.
　　你要明白你不能左右市场，所以你必须不断学习来顺应市场，跟随趋势。当那些在传统行业习惯于发号施令并让别人执行其指令的成功人士进入市场时，尤其是初次进入市场时经常希望市场遵循他们的指令或按照他们的意愿变化。他们必须认识到市场是不可能按照他们的意图运行的。他们必须遵从既定规则所显示的市场趋势并且通过设置“止损单”来保护资金和利润。犯一点错误以及蒙受一点损失是没有害处的，因为少量的损失是一个成功投机者的学费。如果你打算进入投机这门有利可图的事业中你就要必须学会所有的规则并且应用这些规则去确定趋势。像律师、医生、会计以及工程师这样的专业人员都要花费多年时间和大量金钱去学习怎样在自己选择的职业中获得成功。所以你也必须花费时间和金钱去学此专业从而变成一个成功的投机者或投资人。2006-7-23 13:25　完成

　　HOWTO MAKE THE MOST MONEY IN THE SHORTEST PERIOD OF TIME
　　如何在最短的时间赚到大钱？

　　Most people want to get rich too quick, that is why they lose their money. They start speculating or investing without first preparing themselves or getting a Commodity education. They do not have the knowledge to start with and the result is they make serious mistakes which cost them money. When you do have knowledge and are prepared you can make the most money in the shortest period of time. You must learn to follow the rules which I have laid down and proved to you by examples that you can make a large amount of money in a short period of time when the market is at the right stage for fast advances and fast declines occur.
　　多数人希望快速致富，这就是他们亏损的原因。他们在没有做好初步准备或者没有经过交易培训的情况下开始投机或投资。他们没有进行交易所需要的知识，其结果就是造成严重的亏损，如果你拥有了知识并且做好了准备，你可以在最短的时间内赚到大钱。你必须学会遵从我制定并且已经被很多事实证明过的规则，这样你身处当前快速上升或快速下降的市场中，短时间内便能赚到大钱。

　　Do not try to lead the market or make the market. Follow the trend which is made by big men who make big money and you will make money. Buy when the big market makers are ready for prices to move up fast, sell when they are ready for prices to move down fast and you will make large profits in a short period of time. Trade only when the market shows a definite trend and trade according to definite rules.
　　自己不要试图主导市场或操控市场。遵从由市场主力操控的市场趋势，那些人获得赚到大钱后且你也将随之获利。当市场大庄家已经准备好了在价格上快速拉升时买入，在快速打压时卖出，这样你就会在短期内获得很大的利润。只有当市场显示一个明确的趋势时进行交易，并且根据明确的规则进行交易。

　　Study the chart on Soy Beans for 1953 and 1954 and the examples which I have given and you cannot fail to make profits provided you use STOP LOSS orders as advised.
　　认真研究1953年以及1954年的大豆的图表和我给你们的例子，像我曾经建议的那样设置“止损单”，你在市场不赚钱都不行。

　　From March 8, 1954 to April 27, 1954 May Soy Beans advanced from 343½ to 422, a gain of 78½¢ per bushel in 50 calendar days and 35 actual market days. This would give a profit of $7,800 on 10,000 bushels and you were buying after the price was up $1.05 per bushel from the low in August 1953 which proves that you can buy at new highs in the last stage of a bull market and make large profits in a short period of time.  This is without guessing but following rules and buying when the big people buy and of course you are with the trend made by the big traders.

　　从1954年3月8日到1954年5月27日，大豆期货从343½ 美分涨到了422美分，在50个自然日合35个交易日内就有78½美分/蒲式耳的利润，这样10000蒲式耳将获得7800美元的收益。假设你在1953年8月从最低点开始上涨的1.05美元/蒲式耳处开始买进大豆，在经过证明的牛市后期你可以在新的高位买进并且在一个短时间内获得较大利润。这就是不要臆测但是要遵从规则，当主力买的时候买，当然你也要在顺应庄家趋势的前提下。
　　Refer to the trading examples on May Rye and you will see how large profits could be made in a short period of time by selling short after prices were down to comparatively low levels against the extreme high levels.
　　参考我在5月黑麦上的交易例子，你就会看到为什么在这轮从一个相对高点急跌到一个相对低点的短线操作中短期内获得大量利润。2006-7-23 14:35　完成

　　WHY PEOPLE DO NOT MAKE MONEY BUYING AND SELLING COMMODITIES
　　为什么大多数人在市场中赚不了钱？
　　I have stated in my books many times the market does not beat you, it is your own human weakness that causes you to defeat yourself. The average man or woman nearly always wants to buy low and sell high. The farmer wants to sell at high prices whatever he produces but he wants to buy what he needs at low prices. The labouring man wants high wages all the time but wants low prices for what he buys to eat or wear. This is a violation of a fundamental economic law and it just will not work. To make a success in speculation you cannot expect to buy low and sell high. You will make money when you do exactly the opposite of what the average man or woman wants to do or tries to do and makes a failure and loses as a result of what they are trying to do.
　　我在书中已经陈述了在大多数时间内由于人性的弱点而不是市场的过错导致你的损失。一般人通常都想买在最低卖在最高。农民却在想他种的农产品要卖个高价而低价购买他所需要的东西。工人一辈子都想高工资低消费。这些都违背了基本经济规律原理。要想投机成功，你不能时时想期货买在最低卖高。当你与那么自认为做对市场而造成失败和损失的人相反操作正确时，你才会赚钱。  
　　You will make profits when you learn to BUY HIGH AND SELL LOW. You must learn to follow the trend of prices and realize that they are NEVER too HIGH TO BUY as LONG as the TREND is UP and NEVER TOO LOW TO SELL AS LONG AS THE TREND IS DOWN.
　　当你学习了买高卖低这一部分内容后你会获利。你必须要学会跟随价格的趋势，只要趋势向上就不要担心价格太高而不敢买，同时只要趋势向下时也不要担心价格太低而不敢卖。

　－－东张西望修正了这段不正确的部分。

　　ONE GRAIN GOES UP WHILE ANOTHER GOES DOWN AT THE SAME TIME
　　同一时间一种农产品上涨而另一品种却下跌

　　May Beans and May Rye 1953 - 54
　　1953 - 54的5月大豆期货与5月黑麦期货
　　Example: May 7, 1946 May Rye sold at 286.5, the highest price in history. Many people remember this high price and buy all the way down instead of selling. Why do they buy? Because after May Rye sold at 286.5 it looked cheap at $2.00 and they buy it; at 150 it looks still cheaper and they buy it but the trend is down and it goes lower. At 125 it looks still cheaper but it goes lower because the MAIN TREND IS DOWN and the supply exceeds the demand or the selling is better than the buying.
1946年5月7日，5月黑麦涨到历史最高286.5点。 许多人记得这个高价并随跌势一路买下来而不是卖。为什么他们要买？5月黑麦相对2美元的价格是比较便宜的，所以他们就买了。在150美分时看起来依然便宜，所以他们就一直买，但是这时趋势已经开始向下了并且价格持续走低。由于供求大于需求或者卖价高于买价而使得大势向下，跌到125美分更加低的位置。

　　May Soy Beans 1948 high 436-3/4. The price had moved up from 334 in October 1947, and after the trend turned down in less than one month’s time, May Beans sold at 320? and three months later advanced to 425. These wide fluctuations were the result of buying and selling. Too many people got bullish too late and bought too late and later became pessimistic when prices were down $1 per bushel.  They then sold and prices went up again.

  五月大豆期货从1947年10月的334美分涨到1948年的436.75美分，然后趋势开始反转向下走低，在短短不到一个月的时间里，五月黄豆跌到320点。然后，三个月后价格又攀升至425。这样大幅度的波动是买卖的结果。太多人因为太晚发现牛市而买晚了，以至于价格下跌1美元/蒲式耳，他们就感到后悔莫及。于是他们又开始卖出，而价格又开始回升。

　　started up traders decided prices were TOO HIGH and at 270 they SOLD SHORT. The WISE MAN who KNEW the TREND was up, BOUGHT. When May Beans reached the previous old high of 311? in December 1953, which was the high of April 1953, the public decided that prices were too high because in four month’s time, or since August, prices went up over 70￠ per bushel so they sold out anything that they had bought and sold short, hoping to buy lower.

   1953年8月20日，五月黄豆期货低达239美分。1953年4月卖出价格为309美分。当五月黄豆突然拉升到达270美分的时候，期民都认为价格已经很高了而决定卖空。而聪明的人知道现在趋势向上，他们选择买入。1953年12月当五月黄豆攀升至1953年四月的那个历史311美分高点时，大部分人认为价格已经足够高了，因为从8月到现在的四个月以来，黄豆上涨70点/每蒲式耳，于是他们开始满仓卖空，等待低点买入。

　　Dec. 17, 1953 May Beans declined to 295-3/4 and made bottom, then advanced to 310 around the high of December 1953. The public decided prices were TOO HIGH and SOLD SHORT while the WISE TRADERS BOUGHT AT NEW HIGHS following MY RULES and continued to BUY AT NEW HIGHS because the TREND WAS UP.

　　1953年12月17日五月黄豆跌至295.75并形成底部，然后又上扬到310，在1953年12月的顶部盘整。大部分人认为价格到顶而卖空，少数聪明人按照我的法则买入，因为趋势一直是向上的。

　　1954 April 27th May Beans sold at 422, an advance of $1.82 per bushel in eight months and seven days. The greatest advance in history and the greatest range in any option.
　　1954年4月27日五月黄豆卖出价格为422，在8个月零7天的日子里，每蒲式耳上涨了1.82美元。这是有史以来最大的涨幅，也是最大的振荡。

　　本节由东张西望于2006-7-25 11:59:30翻译

这段翻译的不好：

You will make profits when you learn to BUY HIGH AND SELL LOW. You must learn to follow the trend of prices and realize that they are NEVER too HIGH TO BUY as LONG as the TREND is UP and NEVER TOO LOW TO SELL AS LONG AS THE TREND IS DOWN.
　　当你学习了买高卖低这一部分内容后你会获利。你必须要学会跟随价格的趋势，不要只要趋势向上就不要怕价格太高而不敢买，同时趋势向下时也不要担心价格太低而不敢卖。

应该这样翻译更恰当：

当你学习了买高卖低这一部分内容后你将会获利。你必须学会跟随价格的趋势，并且明白在趋势向上时价格太高也可以买，在趋势向下时价格太低也可以卖。（多个否定，直接翻译成肯定的更容易理解，不至于绕口）