第二章： 谷物交易技术方法及趋势指标（江恩期货教程中文版）——004 [复制链接]

FOUR RULES4条规则:
Rule 1 – TIME RULE
规则#1:时间规则
The TIME FACTOR is the most important. When TIME is up, Time or Space movements will reverse.
时间因素是最重要的。当时间到达时，时间或者空间变动将反转。
Keep a record of the days that the market reacts, that is, actual trading days; also keep a record of the calendar days of each reaction or rally. When a reversal comes that exceeds the previous TIME movement, consider that the trend has changed, at least temporarily. After any important top or bottom is reached and the first reaction or rally comes, there is nearly
always a secondary move which usually makes a slightly higher bottom or a lower top. The duration of this move may be 1, 2, 3 days or more, all depending upon the activity of the market and the duration of the advance or the decline. But your rule is to watch for an overbalancing of a previous TIME period before deciding that the trend has changed.
做好市场所有开始变化日子的记录，意思是说，实际的交易日，同时也保持一分包括每个　回调或者反弹的自然日（日历日）的记录。当一轮超越上一个时间变动的反转来临时，认为趋势已经改变，至少已经改变。在一些重要的顶或底和首个回调或者反弹到达后，几乎都要做一个通常微小的更高的底或者更低的顶第二波行情。这一波行情的持续时间大约是1到3天或者更多，所有这些都依赖于市场的活跃性和其上涨或者下跌的持续时间。但你不还要的留意决定趋势改变前上一个时间周期的失去平衡点。

Rule 2 – SWING BOTTOMS AND TOPS波峰和波谷
When a market advances, it continues to make higher bottoms and higher tops on the main swings. You must watch all of these reactions or bottoms; then the first time a SWING BOTTOM is broken, whether it be for 1, 2, 3 days or more, consider that the trend has changed and go with it.
When a market is declining, it continues to make lower bottoms and lower tops. Therefore,when the last SWING TOP is crossed, it indicates a change in trend.
当市场上涨时，它将在主要的波动中继续创出更高的底部和和更高的顶部。你就必须观察所有的回调或底部；当一个波谷首次击破时,不论其是1－3天或者更多天，都要认为趋势已经改变，并跟随他。
当市场下跌时，它将创更低的底部和更低的顶部。因此，当最后的波峰被穿过时，预示趋势已经改变。

楼主辛苦了，不知此书有无图片？我总觉得文字有点抽象。

Rule 3 – SPACE OR PRICE MOVEMENTS　空间与价格的涨落
By SPACE MOVEMENTS, I mean cents per bushel up or down from top to bottom. For example: Suppose Wheat starts to advance from 80¢ per bushel and reaches 90¢; reacts to 85¢; then advances to above $1.00 per bushel, reaching 112; then reacts to 107, which is again 5 cents’ reversal in SPACE MOVEMENT. Then the advance is resumed and the price goes to 120; a quick reaction follows to 113, a decline of 7 cents per bushel, exceeding the two previous reactions of 5 cents per bushel. We call this "overbalancing" of a SPACE MOVEMENT and an indication of a change in trend. But you must never depend upon the SPACE MOVEMENT alone to give a definite indication of a change in trend until it is confirmed by a reversal in TIME PERIOD and by the market breaking the last SWING BOTTOM.
通过空间的变化，我预定从顶部到底每蒲式耳的涨跌美分数。
例如：假设小麦从80美分/蒲式耳开始涨到90美分；在85美分回调；然后涨到1美元/蒲式耳，到达112美分；然后回调到107美分，那它再次在空间上5美分处反转。然后涨势继续，价格达到120美分，快速回调到113美分，下跌了7美分/蒲式耳，超过了前两次的5美分/蒲式耳回调。我们称这个空间的变化叫“平衡过度”，它预示的趋势的改变。但你在时间周期未被证实和市场的最后的底部未被击破前千万不要单独依赖这个“空间变化”给你提供明确的趋势改变的指标。

Rule 4 – RESISTANCE LEVELS 阻力级别
When the price breaks back one-half or more of the previous SWING, this is also an indication of a change in trend. In a declining market, a rally of one-half or 50% or more of a SWING is the first indication of a change in trend. But these indications must be confirmed by the TIME RULE before you can be sure that there is a definite change in trend.
当价格反向回到上一波的1/2或者更多时，这也是趋势改变的一个迹象。在熊市中，一波中一半、50%或更多的反弹是第一个趋势改变的指标。但是这些指标在被必须要被时间规则所证明后才能确认趋势已经改变。
A review and study of past market movements will prove to you the accuracy and value of these rules.
Study the examples and comparisons of May Rye for 1924-1925 and 1945-1946.
学习和回顾过去的行情会验证你的准确性的这些规则的价值。学习这些例子并比较五月黑麦在1924-1925年和1945-1946年间的走势。

AVERAGE SPACE MOVEMENT平均价格变动
As a general rule, Wheat or Rye will not react or decline more than 7 to 10 cents per bushel and in extreme cases not more than 12 cents per bushel before the advance is resumed. As a rule, breaking back or reversing more than 12 cents will show a change in trend when confirmed by the TIME RULE.
作为一条通用的规则，小麦或者黑麦不会回调或者　下跌超过7－10美分/蒲式耳，极端的情况下在涨势继续前不会超过12美分/蒲式耳。作为规则，当时间规则已经被确定后回落或者反弹超过12美分时认为趋势已经改变。
When a market is declining, the average rally is 7 to 10 cents and seldom more than 12 cents. In extremely weak markets, rallies may not run more than 3 to 5 cents per bushel, all depending upon whether prices are at normal or abnormal levels.
当在市场正在下跌中途，其平均反弹不会超过7－10美分并且很少超过12美分。在极端疲软的市场中，反弹不会超过3－5美分/蒲式,所有这些住依赖价格处在正常还是非正常水平的位置。

WHEN GRAIN IS IN THE STRONGEST OR WEAKEST POSITION当谷物处于最强和最弱位时
When Wheat, Rye or Corn is advancing and is in the last stages of a fast upswing, reactions will often last 2 days and then the advance will be resumed. An advance of this kind will sometimes run 42 to 49 days or 6 to 7 weeks and in extreme cases may run 3 to 4 months, but around 84 to 90 calendar days it is very important to watch for a change in trend.
当小麦、黑麦或者玉米正在上涨并且处在最后阶段的快速向上波动时候，经常在最后的2天回调，然后涨势继续。在这类上涨中有时会运行42－49天或者6－7周，在极端的情况下会运行3－4个月，但是在84－90个日历日这一段对于观察趋势的改变是非常重要的。
Remember, the longer the duration in TIME a market has run up or down, the surer the indication of a change in the main trend when the TIME RULE shows a reversal. Also a very great range in fluctuations makes a change in trend more important when it comes.
记住，市场涨跌的周期越长，时间法则显示主趋势的何时反转则越可靠。同样，一个巨大的波动幅度显示的趋势改变也更加重要。

Example – MAY RYE
1945
Jun 1 Low 131-3/8.
19 High 146½, up 15 cents. No reaction lasted over 2 days and no one-cent break under a previous daily bottom. 19 Was a signal day. Then followed a quick 2-day reaction. 21 Low 138½. Then one-day rally to 142½. Then broke previous bottom. 25 Low 135½, from which rally followed. Jul 2 High 141¾. It failed to cross the last top of June 22. The downward trend was  resumed, with the market making lower prices. Jul 7 Low 130¼. A rally followed.
1945
13 High 138¼. This was a normal rally of 8 cents per bushel. The next decline ran to 18 Low 129, a signal day, when the minor trend turned up.
Aug 4 High 139¾, 2 cents under the top of July 2 and only 1½ cents above the top of July 13, making this a selling level with stop loss order above 142½. Then the main trend turned down again, with nothing more than one-day rallies.

21 Low 124, down 15 cents from the last top and 22½ cents from the top of June 19. This run lasted 13 market days and from the top of June 19 the decline was 51 market days and 60 calendar days – a place to watch for a change in trend. The market then rallied for 3 consecutive days, showing a change in trend, and started making higher tops and higher bottoms.
31 High 139-3/8, up near the last top. A 3-day reaction followed. Sep 5 Low 133½. Note that this was less than a 6-cent decline. The advance was then resumed.
Oct 15 High 153½.
20 Low 148¼, the reaction lasting 5 market days and a decline of 5¼ cents per bushel. No indication either by TIME, SWING, or SPACE MOVEMENT that top had been reached, because no SWING BOTTOM had been broken, so this really was another 3-day reaction as there were 3 daily tops around 153½. A rapid advance followed. Nov 13 High 182-1/8. A quick reaction followed.
16 Low 169¼ . This was a 3-day reaction and a SPACE reaction of nearly 13 cents per bushel, exceeding the previous SPACE reaction. While SPACE movement indicated a change in trend, the previous TIME periods had not been exceeded and no SWING BOTTOM had been broken. Therefore, you could not decide that the minor or main trend had changed until there was a reversal in TIME or a SWING BOTTOM broken. A sharp 3-day rally followed.
20 High 187, up 63 cents from the low of August 21. By referring to 1924-1925 you would find that the advance at that time ran from 119 to 182¼, an advance of 63 cents. The SPACE MOVEMENT would make this a selling level with a stop loss order 3 cents away. November 20 was a signal day, the price closing at the low of the day’s range.
The decline continue to 23 Low 173½, a decline of 13½ cents. This exceeded the previous SPACE reaction but  still the TIME period had not been exceeded nor had a SWING bottom been broken. A 3-day rally followed to 27 High 181¼, almost the same top as November 13, making this a selling level protected with a stop loss order 3 cents above.
The decline was resumed and when prices broke 173½, they were under the first SWING bottom and the TIME period from the top exceeded the TIME period of all previous reactions since August 21.Dec 5 Low 160, down 27 cents per bushel in 12 market days and 15 calendar days, which was a normal 2 weeks’ reaction. The market rallied, making higher bottoms.
10 High 169.
15 Low of reaction 161½, a second higher bottom. The advance was resumed and prices crossed 169, the high of December 10, showing main trend up again. For continuation of this advance, see analysis under "May Rye Swing Comparison Chart."

MAY RYE  Comparison of  Price and Time Moves
1924-1925 1945-1946
Market Days . . . . . . . . Calendar Days
3-day Market Moves
1924 - November 1, May Rye 119. Then a big upswing followed with no reaction of over 10 cents per bushel and no reaction lasting over 9 days.
1925 - January 28, high 182½, up 63½ cents in 88 days
Notice on the Swing Chart that no SWING or reaction bottom was broken during this advance. The TIME of greatest reaction was 9 calendar days and the greatest price reaction 10 cents per bushel. This occurred December 27, 1924 to January 5-6, 1925. Therefore to change trend the market must decline more than 10 cents per bushel or more than 9 calendar days or break a Swing reaction bottom. Refer to Rules 1, 2, 3 and 4. By watching these 4 rules you could determine when the trend had changed and could sell out and go short.

1925
Jan 28 High 182½; Jan. 29 low 176½ – down 6 cents.  30 High 181½, up 5 cents, a lower top.
Feb 3 Low 169½, down 13 cents, and from Jan. 28 high the time was 6 calendar days. This gave two indications that top had been made: 2 Swing bottoms broken and price decline of more than 10 cents, which would indicate a short sale. 4 High 177½, up 8 cents from Feb. 3 low. This indicated a short sale with stop at  183½, which would be one cent above 182½ top. A decline followed that lasted  more than 9 calendar days.
11 Low 154, down 28½ cents in 14 calendar days.
16 High 164, up 10 cents in 5 days, a normal rally.
17 Low 155, a higher bottom than Feb. 11, sign of support.
20 High 162, a lower top.
21 Low 157¼, a third higher bottom, sign of better support or buying. Stop, should be placed on shorts at 165 or one cent above the top of Feb. 16. Stop was caught. You  should buy for long account.
Mar 2 High 170¼, same high as Feb 9, a double top. Sell out and go short with stop at 172½. This top was not crossed and main trend continued down, breaking all lows of Feb. 11, 17, and 21 and showing great weakness. No rally lasted more than 3 or 4 days. Finally the low of 119, made on Nov. 1, 1924 was broken, a sign of greater weakness. You would stay short.
17 Low 110½, down 72½ cents from 182½, Time 48 days. Time Rule says to watch for change in trend 6 to 7 weeks or 42 to 49 days. Stop should be one cent above previous day’s top after a decline of this much.
18 High 123½, up 13 cents, a sign of higher prices.
20 Low 113, down 10½ cents and a higher bottom than Mar. 17, which was 3 days apart. This would be a place to cover and buy when next it crossed the previous day’s top.
Mar. 24 High 130; Mar. 25 low 124½; Mar. 26 high 130½, making Mar. 24-26 a double top.
Then when prices broke under 124½, the low Mar. 25, you would sell out and go short. The decline continued.
Apr 16 Low 103, down 79½ cents from 182½ and nearing $1.00 per bushel, a natural support level – Time to watch for change in trend.
22 High 112½, up 9½ cents. 27 Low 102¼, only 3/4 cent under low of April 16, an indication of support, a double bottom and place to buy with stop at 99. The trend turned up and prices crossed the top of April 27 at 112½.
May 8 High 129. Note old tops of March 24-26 at 130 and 130½. You should sell out and go short against these old tops, placing stop at 132½. The trend turned down.
22 Low 112; May 25 high 120½. When option expired, low 114½.

May Rye for Delivery May 1926
1925
Jul 16 Low 90½. 31 High 105¾. Aug 11 Low 93, a higher bottom than July 16 low of 90½ and a place to buy with stop at 89½. Sep 2 High 100¼.  3 Low 97¼. 6 High 101¼, a higher top and sign of higher prices. 8 Low 98¾, a third higher bottom – good sign of support. The prices crossed the tops  of Sep. 2 and 6 and also tops of July 31 and Aug. 18. This indicated great strength and higher prices. A rapid advance followed.
Oct 6 High 140½, up 50 cents in 92 days. Our rule says to watch for change in trend in 3 months or 90 days. The greatest decline had been from August 18 to 26, from 107  to 93 or 14 cents per bushel, Time period 8 days. So you would raise stop one cent  under previous day’s low and watch for change in trend when a decline exceeded 8 days and 14 cents.
11 Low 127, down 13½ cents in 5 days, a sign of change soon to come. 16 High 137½, up 10 cents in 5 days, making a lower top – a place to sell short with stop at 141½. The next decline was over 8 days and more than 14 cents, showing main trend down.

1945 - 1946 was similar to 1924-1925, altho 1945-1946 made a greater range in price. Refer to analysis of May Rye on Page 20-21 and study the Comparison charts.